Covid-19 & Fashion: Normal will never be the same again
London, United Kingdom
These are strange times. No longer does Wuhan feel a world away, the memes that have exploded across the internet don’t seem quite as funny, the virus we watched with interest, a distant pandemic suddenly feels very close to home. As I write this article from my lounge, no longer venturing in to the office to work, things still feel somewhat surreal - empty shelves, panic buying, masks everywhere you look, quarantine, self-isolation, herd immunity, lockdowns and ventilators - this feels more like a film than real life.
In the current climate, it seems strange to talk about fashion. Fashion isn’t really important. But it is. It is important to all the people who work in the industry (that is 1 in every 6 people globally) and to all the people it brings pleasure to. The articles, the pictures, the magazines, they are all important to the people who read them. Just as clothes are important to the people who take pleasure in wearing them. Not to mention all the people whose livelihoods depend on the industry's strength and growth both of which are severely under threat from Covid-19.
For all the talk of the shift to online retail, most clothes are still bought in stores and across the globe Coronavirus is having a cataclysmic effect on retail.
“So when the crisis ends what will be the new normal?”
As populations are being locked down or encouraged to social distance, department stores are being forced to close and high streets are deserted. Jobs are being cut, sales are plummeting, even online fashion retail is struggling. People aren’t going out as much, weddings and events are being cancelled and as such people aren’t buying clothes. The sad truth is that jobs will be lost, stores will close for good and not every business will survive the crisis. The effects are already being felt across the industry as China’s lockdown has broken supply changes and affected high end retail, issues further exacerbated by Italy’s crisis. The short term challenges to the fashion industry brought by Covid-19 are numerous but many commentators expect the industry to bounce back once the pandemic is brought under control. The longer term implications and how fundamental the shift in how consumers behave will be is harder to predict.
So when the crisis ends what will be the new normal? Over the past two decades China has come to dominate the production market. It is responsible for producing nearly 40% of the world's textiles as well as many of the buttons, zippers and threads that feature on our clothes. Attracted by cheap labour and the declining cost of transport, the fashion industry has become increasingly reliant on China to manufacture clothes. In the initial weeks of the outbreak this was disastrous for many brands as lockdowns across China disrupted their supply chains. An issue exacerbated by the seasonal nature of fashion which meant that a number of companies were unable to produce their spring collections. As the virus spread and retail fell this issue became less problematic as demand for clothes declined. Nonetheless the crisis has come to demonstrate the risks of the over-reliance on China by many of the supply chains that feed the fashion industry. As such it is reasonable to assume that, once the crisis is over, fashion companies will look to diversify their supply chain to guard against another breakdown. This twinned with the growth of protectionism brought about by populist governments, movements and leaders like Trump, Bolsonaro and Brexit, as well as the closing of borders and drive towards national self sufficiency driven by the crisis may encourage fashion brands to increasingly manufacture clothes in their home countries. As such we may see an increasing number of brands shifting the focus of their production away from China and bringing it closer to home. A trend which will be further boosted by the growth of sustainability as an issue due the environmental benefits of geographically shortening supply chains.
“As populations across the globe are forced into lockdown and social-distancing becomes the buzz word of the day, e-commerce is set to further boom”
A secondary long term effect of this crisis may well be a further entrenchment of retail’s decline and the growth of e-commerce. As populations across the globe are forced into lockdown and social-distancing becomes the buzz word of the day, e-commerce is set to further boom. Already people, particularly the elderly, who have never shopped online are increasingly doing so. The ability to purchase goods without having to risk a busy shopping centre or store, in a world where hygiene is the issue of the day, has catalysed the world’s shift towards online shopping. The huge strain that the crisis will continue to put on traditional retail, the likely store closures and department store struggles will further drive this shift as more and more people begin to shop online. It is likely that when this crisis is over this shift will remain as it becomes a habit and eventually the new norm. For the fashion industry this means designers and brands will continue to grow their online presence as retail outlets may well become a thing of the past.
The biggest unknown perhaps, in terms of the virus's effects, is what it will do to our tastes. It seems that for a while people won’t be buying many clothes. Whether our time in isolation will encourage many to splurge out, after it, in order to look their very best when we are finally set free or whether the economic impact of the crisis will mean that many people have other priorities is unknown. What trends will emerge? What trends will decline? And what things will be put into perspective?
Perhaps the crisis will remind us of our common humanity perhaps it will encourage fashion to become even more diverse and accepting. Perhaps our fear of another virus will come at the expense of our current fears about the climate, maybe the trend towards sustainability will decline or perhaps after facing down one global crisis it will grow significantly in order to prevent another. Maybe isolation will encourage introspection and with it a greater tendency towards self expression. Perhaps our eventual freedom will be matched by a more freeing attitude to what we wear, leading to a rise in androgyny and the vibrancy of our clothes as people feel increasingly free and an increasing desire to express themselves through their fashion in any way they want. Or maybe the isolation will shift peoples gaze away from fashion, maybe wearing expensive brands and flashy outfits will be seen in poor taste as values shift leading to a rise in more practical clothing. The truth is we don’t know what the new normal will be. Only that eventually normality will return and that normal will never be the same again.
“Covid-19 doesn’t care about borders, race or class, it doesn’t care what gender you are or identify as, nor who you sleep with or love. Perhaps for the first time ever, all of us across the globe are bound together by a common reality”
As journalists write articles about the first truly global virus for generations and write epitaphs for the age of globalisation, as flights are cancelled, borders put up and the world locked down; it would be remiss of me not to note that for all the obituaries written for globalisation and all the speculation that the virus will finally end its age as nationalism and borers rise, humanity has never felt closer together. Covid-19 doesn’t care about borders, race or class, it doesn’t care what gender you are or identify as, nor who you sleep with or love. Perhaps for the first time ever, all of us across the globe are bound together by a common reality. The same hopes and fears, the same feelings and discussions. Rich or poor, black or white, it doesn’t matter we are all being locked down, we are all scared for our families, for our jobs and we are all wondering what the future will bring. Italy, Germany, France, China in lockdown, England and America on the way, all of sudden everyone across the globe is facing the same things. Never has there been such a stark reminder of our shared humanity, of how similar we all really are. Never have we been able to empathise with the experience of people on the other side of the world in quite the same way. In the most surreal and difficult of times we are in fact more united than ever.
Let us be kind, stay safe, be healthy & wash our hands regularly.
Samson Royston, March 2020
